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International Report Cites Global Warming Cause, Effects


Piero

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http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/292.htm

 

There is evidence that SE Asia would be 'pulling up' the average, suffering a greater rise than just 4" I can't find peer-reviewed publication supporting that so take it as anecdotal -- though it seems clear *some* places will be affected more and others less, so even if there is some specific challenge to the SE Asian effect *somebody* will be dealing with > 4" rise.

 

A vast majority of the SE Asian population, agriculture and economy exist in areas that would be directly affected by a rise in sea level (no peer-review for this, an atlas will have to suffice ;)). Cyclones and storm-surges already cause terrible devastation, sea level rise would worsen things dramatically.

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good point andy.

 

Oregon and other States pledge to work on emissions, today.

 

Given potential risk and uncertainty in any situation, can anyone think of a reasons why the safest option is not the most logical, regardless of subject?

 

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. I'm arguing that we should look at the risks objectively. We as a society have a finite number of resources. The question is which issues do we spend them on. My guess is that many more people will die from things which we know are happening than due to the couple degree rise in temperature that might happen due to global warming. The money spent on global warming will not be spent on, HIV/AIDS, malaria in north Africa, heart disease, cancer, malnutrition, monsoon/typhoon flooding in south east Asia, etc. We need a logical open discussion on the issues, not doomsday histeria.

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The money spent on global warming will not be spent on' date=' HIV/AIDS, malaria in north Africa, heart disease, cancer, malnutrition, monsoon/typhoon flooding in south east Asia, etc.[/quote']

 

Yes, all very important causes, along with the habitability of the planet.

 

We need a logical open discussion on the issues' date=' not doomsday histeria.[/quote']

 

I agree. Doomsday hysteria is not productive.

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I think we're pretty much in agreement, Bob. Hysteria is bad (from both the Environmental Wingnuts, and the Do-What-We-Want-Cause-God-Will-Fix-It fringes), though it is my personal belief that the cost of dealing with the effects of climate change will dwarf the other costs you mention; of course, this level of detail is rapidly approaching "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?" ;)

 

Unfortunately, I believe solving the problem is out of our control. It seems clear that China and India will continue to develop at breakneck speed, dumping carbon into the atmosphere at a rate that'd embarrass the most predatory western governments. It's relatively easy for us to say "SLOW DOWN!" with our solid middle class providing stability, but a country like China (with it's governmental inferiority complex, population pressures, imbalance between rural and agrarian standard of living, and popular political pressures) isn't likely to slow down one iota. Quite the opposite, actually; they'll speed up.

 

We in the west have to bring our big gun, technology, to bear. It's the only lever we have. Sure, we can never "afford" the kind of serious investment I think is required, but I look at all the billions upon billions of dollars being wasted in Iraq and I can't help wonder what would happen if it were being invested into clean energy research instead...

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Just a quick note... While a global average increase of sea level by 4" wouldn't prompt much response here than the wearing of galoshes' date=' about a billion people in southeast Asia and the Pacific islands would be affected catastrophically.[/quote']

 

From the report you cited earlier, the number of exposed would be a few tens of millions not a billion. This is assuming a rise of 1 meter, which is at the extreme end of what is predicted.

 

"As outlined in IPCC (1998), climate-related stresses in coastal areas include loss and salinization of agricultural land resulting from changes in sea level, likely changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones, and the possibility of reduced productivity in coastal and oceanic fisheries. Table 11-9 lists estimates of potential land loss resulting from sea-level rise and the number of people exposed, assuming no adaptation (Mimura et al., 1998; Nicholls and Mimura, 1998). These estimates of potential land loss and populations exposed demonstrate the scale of the issue for the major low-lying regions of coastal Asia. The results are most dramatic in Bangladesh and Vietnam, where 15 million and 17 million people, respectively, could be exposed given a relative change in sea level of 1 m (Brammer, 1993; Haque and Zaman, 1993)—though it should be recognized that a 1-m sea-level rise is at the extreme range of presently available scenarios. "

 

from http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/446.htm

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We in the west have to bring our big gun, technology, to bear. It's the only lever we have. Sure, we can never "afford" the kind of serious investment I think is required, but I look at all the billions upon billions of dollars being wasted in Iraq and I can't help wonder what would happen if it were being invested into clean energy research instead...

 

No questions on that one.

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I included the number of people living along the Asian Pacific rim who would likely be affected. The only countries specifically called out are those identified as the two highest. Many other countries, and several hundred million people live in areas likely affected. But, you are right; that number was my personal extrapolation, and wasn't taken from the study. Aside from a justified dig at me for my foolishness, do you have a point? 32 million people affected isn't enough? How many before taking it seriously?

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Andy:

 

My response was in no way intended to be a dig at you. I was personally interested in what the actual number of people affected would be. and thought you would be interested too. We all need to get our facts straight with this issue, just as we should of gotten our facts straight before the Iraq invasion. The 2001 Climate Report looked not only at the two countries mentioned about but also, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, and Pakistan. As to your question as to whether 32 million is too few to worry about, the answer is: Absolutely Not. It does put it on the same scale as:

 

HIV/AIDs 2006 39 million living with Aids , ~3 million deaths per year http://www.avert.org/worldstats.htm

 

Malaria: 300-500 million affected annually, 1.5-2.7 million deaths.

http://archive.idrc.ca/books/reports/1996/01-07e.html

http://www.searo.who.int/en/section10/section21/section338.htm

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What's the average cost of a ring and a wedding, and how much money is wasted on empty ceremonies when the divorce rate is something like %65? If we put that cash towards HIV, maybe a vaccine would be in reach by now. :)

 

speaking of HIV. Do you know that in some villages in africa where HIV is rampant the natives actually believe that the disease originated from the condoms provided by health workers? :(

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Ironic that Africa can't contain AIDS for powerful cultural reasons and we can't contain our contributions to atmospheric carbon for powerful cultural reasons.

 

Aside from that morbid observation, I've tried 4 different drafts of follow ups but I just can't come up with a satisfactory response that weighs the potential future human and animal suffering resulting from climate change against these horrible statistics. Fix 'em all, I guess.

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What's the average cost of a ring and a wedding, and how much money is wasted on empty ceremonies when the divorce rate is something like %65? If we put that cash towards HIV, maybe a vaccine would be in reach by now. :)

 

speaking of HIV. Do you know that in some villages in africa where HIV is rampant the natives actually believe that the disease originated from the condoms provided by health workers? :(

 

I agree, that why when I got married is was in white jeans on the beach in Rockaway.

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What's the average cost of a ring and a wedding, and how much money is wasted on empty ceremonies when the divorce rate is something like %65? If we put that cash towards HIV, maybe a vaccine would be in reach by now. :)

 

speaking of HIV. Do you know that in some villages in africa where HIV is rampant the natives actually believe that the disease originated from the condoms provided by health workers? :(

I disagree with this... I earn my money and I can spend it how I want... I donate to charity, but I am not going to give up things that would make my future wife happy. This could go for a lot things that we do...Eating out, lets only eat at home and send all that money to another country, lets not have our tanks because it is a constant monthly bill, lets not take 4k vacations and give that to other countries. No one here can claim really fall complain and suggest this, cause I can promise you we all live in access. Sorry, my natural born right is to make my money and spend it, how I want.

 

I also think we need to take care of things domestically before we take care of the world...Call me insensitive or whatever you like, but that is how I work.

 

All I know is that the people who are screaming about mankind causing this, were the same people who were claiming we were going to be frozen by now.

 

We got through the past 4 ice ages, due to the world warming...and all these political leaders who are jumping on this band wagon are not practicing what they preach, I can assure you that Al gore is taking private jets to places and his power bill is 20x that of a normal house hold http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm

 

Sorry practice what you preach to me...

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Oh, come on now Reefgeek... Drudge? What's next, Limbaugh quotes? Don't make me get my Michael Moore Rhyming Dictionary. I'm just crazy enough to do it. The fact is, Gore buys his power from sustainable wind farms and purchases carbon allowances to offset his families consumption. Also known as practicing what he preaches.

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Oh' date=' come on now Reefgeek... Drudge? What's next, Limbaugh quotes? Don't make me get my Michael Moore Rhyming Dictionary. I'm just crazy enough to do it. The fact is, Gore buys his power from sustainable wind farms and purchases carbon allowances to offset his families consumption. Also known as practicing what he preaches.[/quote']

 

I searched and grab the first thing that I found...I was tired and wanting to get to bed. I will find some other stuff, trust me Al Gore is not the great guy that everyone thinks he is, because he made a Hollywood movie about the sky falling.

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I haven't seen the movie and am not a huge Al Gore fan anyways. He's a politician who rose through the Senate ranks and captured the bulk of the popular vote in a presidential election -- if you think you're going to shock me with proof of compromises he's made in his political or personal life, I'll save you the time. It's not possible to rise to that level without selling out. Witness John McCain's complete philosophical soul mortgage; pity that, I would likely have voted for him over Hillary (if I had a vote).

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I haven't seen the movie and am not a huge Al Gore fan anyways. He's a politician who rose through the Senate ranks and captured the bulk of the popular vote in a presidential election -- if you think you're going to shock me with proof of compromises he's made in his political or personal life' date=' I'll save you the time. It's not possible to rise to that level [i']without [/i] selling out. Witness John McCain's complete philosophical soul mortgage; pity that, I would likely have voted for him over Hillary (if I had a vote).

 

Well, at least we are on that page together...LOL...I am on the page with you as well that we need to be green, but just not on the belief of what is causing the warming :-)

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I finally got a chance to watch "An Inconvenient Truth" the other day. I had to wait for it to come to HBO because I wasn't going to pay for it. :D

 

It was very dramatic. I thought it was more show than science. Don't get me wrong. I believe in the message... to live cleaner, and healthier, but I didn't care for the delivery.

 

It posed all of the problems, but no real solutions. Small changes, but not a global plan.

 

This is a subject that is tough to sell. Most people don't care if the changes happen after their lifetime. People are used to their comforts.

 

I think we need a better proactive approach, and a good solid global solution, but who is going to put their neck out for that. We as the biggest polluting nation, should be the ones to step up, but it cannot be a band-aid.

 

Regardless, I still tell people that they should watch the movie. It is the idea of getting people involved whether they choose to believe in global warming or not, we should try to live cleaner.

 

Jay

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