95% of reefs gone by 2050???

[180Brandy]

I found this article disturbing and puzzling. They say that if climate warming results in a 1.5 C temperature rise it could lead to loss of 95% of the Great Barrier Reef corals. Does this mean that are tank temperatures must be withing 1.5 C of some absolute temperature?

http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1117-corals.html

[andy]

The ocean has pretty large temperature swings, and reef life handles them as long as they aren't too rapid, and the temp doesn't go too high -- if it does, the coral bleaches. A small increase in the average temperature means a much larger increase on the top end, higher water temps and more time spent there. Check out:

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/archive/sst_series_daviesreef_path.html

[dippin61]

read a thing in the oregonian today that pretty much debunked that article, saying they were using flawed data from fisheries, based on past catches or something like that.. prolly somewhere on oregonlive today as well.

[180Bob]

I found this study done by the Australian Institute of Marine Science among others. It seems to suggest that an increase of the ocean temperature by 1.5 C will have significant impact in coral reefs. The real impact is due to the peak summer temperatures. One thing that I didn't expect was the differences between this reports bleaching threshold and those shown on the noaa graphs. Seems like there is still alot to be learned

http://www.nrw.qld.gov.au/science/pdf/barrier_reef_report_1.pdf